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Probability Assessment In Sports Betting


The probability of a particular outcome occurring or not occurring is the entire concept of gambling, and sports betting is no exception. It means that if you can understand what probability is, why it’s essential, and how to use it to your advantage, you can become a champion in sports betting. Here, we’ll provide a basic walkthrough of the relevance of probability when it comes to wagering in sports.


What Is Probability?

Probability is the likelihood of an event transpiring or not. This value is typically expressed from 0 to 1 and is relatively easy to calculate. 0 means the event has no chance of occurring, while one means the prediction will undoubtedly happen. Note that probability can also be a percentage. 100% means there’s a guaranteed chance of the event, while 0% means there’s no mathematical likelihood of it occurring.


What Is Probability In Sports Betting?

While the probability is relatively straightforward and highly precise, the story changes when applied to sports betting. There are some critical reasons for this. The first and most significant is that there are too many factors and unknowns in any sports event. And while you can implement some statistical tools and approaches to compensate for this, only some of them can guarantee 100% accuracy. Instead, the best you can do here is estimate the likelihood of a given outcome happening. It is precisely the same thing that sportsbooks do. As such, the more accurately you can assess probability, the higher your chances of beating the bookie.


How To Assess Probability In Sports Betting

Now, we’re getting into the meat of things. There’s an elementary formula that you can use to assess the probability of a given outcome when wagering in sports. It looks as follows:

P = 1 / K

Where K represents the online sportsbook’s coefficient

As an example, let’s say that Real Sociedad and West Ham will be meeting in an upcoming event, and your bookie offers the following odds:

  • Home team win (Real Sociedad) – 1.60
  • The home team draws – 4.55
  • Away team win (West Ham) – 5.30

Calculating the probability that Real Sociedad wins will give us the following:

0.625: 1 / 1.60

Calculating the probability that Real Sociedad draws will give us the following:

0.2198: 1 / 4.55

Calculating the probability that West Ham wins will give us the following:

0.1887: 1 / 5.30

It leaves us with 1.0335: 0.635 + 0.2198 + 0.1887. And that’s it!


Bottom Line

To be a genuinely profitable bettor, you must ensure that your understanding of probability assessment is top-notch. Those who know how to evaluate odds accurately don’t struggle as much when finding value. And once you don’t have any trouble identifying the best betting opportunities, your bankroll can only grow from there!